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金融时报双语(双语外刊):IMF:无协议退欧将使英国陷入衰退

2019-4-12 18:21| 发布者: admin| 查看: 45| 评论: 0

摘要: No-deal Brexit would push UK into recession, IMF warnsIMF:无协议退欧将使英国陷入衰退免费资料大奉送1)历年CATTI二笔真题2)历年CATTI三笔真题3)金融时报双语83篇4)经济雪人双语21篇5)领导人演讲致辞58篇6 ...

No-deal Brexit would push UK into recession, IMF warns

IMF:无协议退欧将使英国陷入衰退

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Britain’s economy would be hit seven times harder than the rest of the EU and slip into recession in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the IMF forecast on Tuesday in a special analysis in its flagship World Economic Outlook.

 

国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二在其旗舰出版物《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)的一篇特别分析中预测,如果英国无协议退欧,其经济受到打击的程度将是欧盟其它国家的7倍,并将陷入衰退。

 

As Prime Minister Theresa May attempts to broker a Brexit compromise with the Labour party and persuade the EU27 to allow another delay in the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc, the IMF’s analysis suggests the economic stakes could not be higher.

 

在英国首相特里萨(Theresa May)试图与反对党工党就退欧达成妥协,并说服欧盟27国允许英国再次推迟退欧之际,IMF的分析似乎表明,英国退欧的经济赌注已经高到不能再高。

 

If European leaders do not agree another extension to the Article 50 process of leaving the EU on Wednesday, Britain will automatically leave the bloc without a deal on Friday evening in a hard Brexit that would send a shock through the UK economy, the IMF warned.

 

IMF警告称,如果欧洲领导人周三不同意再次延长《里斯本条约》第50(Article 50)规定的退欧过程,英国将于周五晚间在无协议的情况下自动退出欧盟,这种硬退欧产生的冲击波将传遍整个英国经济。

 

Although financial markets have increasingly discounted the possibility of a no-deal outcome, the fund warned that it was important to avoid the costs of a sudden disruption in trade and economic ties between the EU and UK.

 

尽管金融市场越来越不相信出现英国无协议退欧这一结局的可能性,但IMF警告称,避免欧盟和英国之间经贸纽带突然断裂的代价至关重要。

 

It forecast that even if a no-deal Brexit did not result in border disruptions, the UK economy would contract in 2019 and 2020 and, after a recovery in 2021, would be 3.5 per cent smaller than if there had been the type of soft Brexit the IMF assumes in its main forecasts.

 

IMF预测,即使无协议退欧没有导致边境混乱,英国经济也将在2019年和2020年萎缩,在2021年复苏后,其体量也将比软退欧情况下小3.5%IMF的主要预测仍假定英国会软退欧。

 

In a no-deal scenario without border disruption, the IMF estimated the economy would contract and would only recover its 2018 level of output in 2021, instead of growing about 4 per cent over the next three years.

 

IMF估计,在无协议退欧没有导致边境混乱的情景下,英国经济将会收缩,其产出要到2021年才能恢复2018年的水平,而不是在未来3年累计增长约4%

In a second, more severe, scenario with border disruption and more financial instability, economic performance would be even worse. The IMF estimated a decline in gross domestic product of 1.4 per cent in the year after Brexit and a further decline of 0.8 per cent in the second year.

在第二种更加严峻的情景下,即边境混乱和更多金融不稳定,英国经济表现将更加糟糕。IMF估计,英国退欧后的第一年,英国国内生产总值(GDP)将缩水1.4%,第二年将进一步缩水0.8%

The EU economy would also be hit, the fund predicted, but any damage would be much smaller and would constrain growth by 0.5 per cent in 2021.

IMF预测,欧盟经济也将受到冲击,但不论受到何种损害,其程度都将小得多,2021年经济增长速度所受拖累为0.5%

“The situation is in flux as we all know on a daily basis,” said Gita Gopinath, IMF chief economist. “We have seen the negative consequences of the uncertainties surrounding Brexit weigh on investment in the UK and it was a factor in our downward revision of growth in 2019 for the UK”.

如我们每天所看到的,形势一直在变化,”IMF首席经济学家吉塔戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)表示。我们已经注意到,英国退欧不确定性所产生的负面后果,已经影响了英国的投资,这也是我们下调2019年英国增长预测的一个因素。

“These are large effects [in a no deal scenario]. We hope there will be a deal soon,” she added.

 

在无协议退欧情景下,这些因素会产生巨大影响。我们希望很快能够达成协议,她补充说。

The fund’s main forecast is based on a scenario in which Brexit would have only limited trade costs and growth of 1.2 per cent in 2019 and 1.4 per cent in 2020. These forecasts were revised down from 1.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively in the IMF’s January interim forecasts.

IMF的主要预测基于一个情景:即英国退欧只会产生有限的贸易成本,英国经济2019年和2020年分别增长1.2%1.4%。在 1月份发布的中期预测中,IMF曾预测英国经济2019年和2020年的增长率分别为1.5%1.6%


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