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金融时报双语(双语外刊): Lex专栏:以邻为壑的美中贸易战

2018-9-19 19:39| 发布者: admin| 查看: 244| 评论: 0

摘要: Lex_US/China trade war: beggar thy neighbourLex专栏:以邻为壑的美中贸易战Traders in Yiwu suspected Donald Trump would win the 2016 US election. The city, though little-known outside China, hosts the l ...

Lex_US/China trade war: beggar thy neighbour

Lex专栏:以邻为壑的美中贸易战

Traders in Yiwu suspected Donald Trump would win the 2016 US election. The city, though little-known outside China, hosts the largest low-cost wholesale market in the world. Trump supporters ordered far more flags, caps and other merchandise than fans of Hillary Clinton.

义乌的商贩曾经预感到唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)将赢得2016年美国大选。虽然在中国以外鲜为人知,但该市拥有世界上最大的低成本批发市场。当初特朗普的支持者订购了比希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的粉丝多得多的旗子、帽子和其他商品。

Yiwu may struggle to repeat its psephological coup following the Trump administration’s new round of tariffs. Trinkets for the next elections are more likely to be made somewhere else. On Tuesday new levies on $200bn worth of Chinese imports were announced. China cannot retaliate tit-for-tat. Its imports from the US are only worth $130bn. Instead, expect pressure on the renminbi and disruption to cross-border M&A.

在特朗普政府出台新一轮关税之后,义乌可能将难以重复其对选举的神算。未来选举中使用的小商品更有可能在其他地方生产。本周白宫公布了针对2000亿美元中国输美产品的新关税。中国无法针锋相对地报复。它从美国进口的年度总价值仅为1300亿美元。相反,人们可以预计人民币会受到压力,跨境并购会受到干扰。

The theory of comparative advantage predicts that US companies lose profits and productivity if they do not focus on what they do best, while consumers face higher prices. So what? China is already comfortable with the costs of mercantilism. Underlying President Trump’s trade policies is the belief they are bearable for the US too, if they help pry open China’s restricted markets.

按照比较优势理论,如果美国公司不专注于他们最擅长的业务,他们将会损失利润和生产力,而消费者将会面临更高的价格。那又如何呢?中国已经对重商主义的成本感到舒适。支撑特朗普总统贸易政策的是这样一种信念,即美国也可以承受重商主义的成本——如果它们能帮助撬开中国受限制的市场的话。

Mutual incomprehension could extend the dispute. The US overestimates the fragility of China’s domestic economy. It is not as vulnerable as in 1998 and 2008 when export shocks coincided with domestic property downturns. China has not really twigged it is only one of two targets. Analysts at Gavekal argue that a coalition of hawks in Washington DC is on the warpath against US multinationals too. They are under pressure to move more production back home.

相互不理解可能会延长这场争端。美国过度估计了中国国内经济的脆弱性。它不像1998年和2008年那样脆弱,当时出口冲击恰逢国内房地产市场低迷。中国则未搞懂它只是两个目标中的一个。龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的分析师们提出,华盛顿特区的一个鹰派联盟也在摩拳擦掌准备对付美国跨国公司,希望通过施压迫使他们将更多生产业务撤回美国。

Tough tariffs come with a side order of hostility to foreign takeovers. China is unwinding scattergun acquisitions made by businesses such as HNA and Dalian Wanda. A second wave of deals was meant to suck valuable technology from western groups. The US can be expected to block any on its patch. Both powers will derail takeovers elsewhere, through antitrust intervention. A recent example is China’s red flag to US chip group Qualcomm buying Dutch rival NXP.

严厉的关税伴随着对外国收购的敌意。中国正在退出由海航(HNA)和大连万达(Dalian Wanda)等企业在世界各地到处收购的热潮。第二波交易的本意是从西方集团那里汲取有价值的技术。预计美国将阻止在其境内的任何收购企图。借助反垄断干预,这两个大国还将破坏其他地方的收购。最近的一个例子是中国向美国芯片集团高通(Qualcomm)收购荷兰竞争对手恩智浦(NXP)的交易亮出红牌。

The market habitually underprices political risk. There are two consequences if that holds good in the trade war. First, shares in multinationals with globally integrated supply chains, such as Apple, are overpriced. Second, the renminbi will fall further to offset trade shocks. The cheap and cheerful wares of Yiwu’s traders are set to become even cheaper.

市场习惯低估政治风险。如果这场贸易战属于此种情况,那意味着两个后果。首先,拥有全球整合供应链的跨国公司——如苹果(Apple)——股价被高估了。其次,人民币将进一步下跌以抵消贸易冲击。义乌商贩们价廉物美的小商品将变得更便宜。

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