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金融时报双语(双语外刊);特朗普威胁要把加拿大踢出NAFTA

2018-9-3 18:55| 发布者: admin| 查看: 151| 评论: 0

摘要: Trump rant highlights threats to a new Nafta deal特朗普威胁要把加拿大踢出NAFTA公众号:英语人才会个人微信:BlucestudyUS and Canadian trade negotiators had done their best on Friday afternoon to insist th ...

Trump rant highlights threats to a new Nafta deal

特朗普威胁要把加拿大踢出NAFTA

公众号:英语人才会

个人微信:Blucestudy

US and Canadian trade negotiators had done their best on Friday afternoon to insist that a deal on Nafta remained on the table, even as they announced a five-day break in negotiations.

美国和加拿大贸易谈判代表上周五下午尽了最大努力坚称,围绕《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)仍有可能达成协议,即便他们宣布谈判休息五天。

Then on Saturday, while Washington was gripped by the funeral for John McCain, Donald Trump, the US president who was not invited to attend the service, lashed out at his northern neighbours on Twitter. 

接着,在上周六,在华盛顿全城关注约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)的葬礼之际,没有被邀请参加葬礼的美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在Twitter上猛轰北方邻国。

“We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!,” Mr Trump wrote. “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the US after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate Nafta entirely & we will be far better off.”  

“我们不应该用糟糕的贸易协议和免费军事保护来买我们的朋友!”特朗普写道。“没有政治上的必要性非要把加拿大纳入新的NAFTA协议。在遭受数十年滥用后,如果我们不能为美国达成公平协议,那么加拿大就会出局。国会不应该干涉这些谈判,否则我将干脆完全废止NAFTA,那对我们将会有利得多。”

The rant was a reminder of the risks to a possible deal ahead of the resumption of talks on Wednesday — beginning with the unpredictable impulses of the man in the Oval Office. 

这番咆哮在周三恢复谈判之前提醒人们,交易的达成面临着什么样的风险——首先是白宫椭圆形办公室主人的不可预测的冲动。

Although Canadian officials have learnt to dismiss Mr Trump’s bluster, his lack of restraint highlighted how the path for a Nafta deal to be negotiated, agreed and then approved by the US Congress remains fraught with pitfalls, offering little hope that the uncertainty hanging over trade in North America would be lifted anytime soon. 

虽然加拿大官员已经学会不理会特朗普的咆哮,但他的缺乏克制突显出:要谈判达成NAFTA协议、然后获得美国国会批准,需要走过多么布满陷阱的道路。这也意味着笼罩在北美贸易头上的不确定性几乎无望很快消除。

Although Mr Trump sealed a deal with Mexico to revamp Nafta last week, it is still unclear whether Canada will be in a position to join in. Last week’s breakdown in the talks came amid lingering differences over trade rules governing agriculture — and specifically Canada’s protection of its dairy industry — as well as divisions on the regime surrounding trade and investment disputes.

尽管特朗普上周与墨西哥谈妥了改革NAFTA的协议,但仍不清楚加拿大是否能够加入。上周谈判破裂的背景是,农业贸易规则(尤其是加拿大对本国乳制品行业的保护)上的分歧仍然存在,围绕贸易和投资争端的解决机制也存在分歧。

Mr Trump’s bombast, which analysts say is intended to put pressure on Canada as well as prove to his political base that he a tough negotiator, will make it harder to clear the logjam. On milk, for instance, Canadian officials face growing calls to stick to their guns from domestic industry and local politicians, especially in the French-speaking province of Quebec, which is holding an election on October. 

特朗普的狠话(分析人士称,这是为了给加拿大施加压力,同时向他的政治基础选民证明他是一个强硬的谈判者)将加大解决僵局的难度。例如,在牛奶问题上,加拿大官员面临国内行业和当地政界人士(特别是在10月份将要举行选举的法语区魁北克省)越来越响亮的呼吁,要求他们坚守立场。

Philippe Couillard, the premier of Quebec and a member of the ruling Liberal party, said on Friday: “I will not accept any deal that is not accepted by producers. I will not put any pressure on them to accept a deal that does not benefit them.”

魁北克省长、执政的自由党成员菲利普•库亚尔(Philippe Couillard)上周五表示:“我不会接受生产商不接受的任何交易。我不会对他们施加任何压力,让他们接受不利于他们的交易。”

Although the US and Canada had hoped to reach a deal by this weekend, they are now facing a tougher deadline to reach an agreement — and hand a detailed final text to Congress — by the end of September. That would allow a revamped Nafta to be signed by all three heads of government by the end of November, before the change in Mexico’s administration, from outgoing president Enrique Pena Nieto to Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Mexican officials are certainly counting on it, but if the US and Canada make any big changes that affect Mexico, a trilateral deal could easily be derailed. 

虽然美国和加拿大原本希望最迟在本周末达成协议,但他们现在面临更艰难的截止期限:在9月底之前达成协议并向美国国会提交详细的最终文本。这样三国政府首脑才能在11月底之前签署修订后的NAFTA。随后墨西哥总统恩里克•佩纳•涅托(Enrique Pena Nieto)将会卸任,新总统将是安德烈斯•曼努埃尔•洛佩斯•奥夫拉多尔(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)。墨西哥官员肯定指望一切顺利,但如果美国和加拿大做出影响墨西哥的任何重大变化,三方协议很容易被破坏。

In recent days, negotiators from all three countries have grappled with the realisation that hashing out a deal may not even be the hardest part, as congressional approval in the US — most likely in 2019, after the midterm elections — could become a big roadblock. 

最近几天,这三个国家的谈判代表都为这样一个现实揪心,那就是达成协议也许还不是最艰难的环节,美国国会的批准过程——最有可能在2019年进行,在中期选举之后——可能成为一个很大的障碍。

Mr Trump can always count on a substantial number of loyal Republican lawmakers to back him on a revised Nafta deal. But some pivotal Republican lawmakers, particularly in the Senate, who are sympathetic to free trade, could cause problems. Not only would they fail to support any deal that excludes Canada, but they are also concerned that the agreement in the works would ultimately restrict trade in North America rather than open it up.

特朗普始终可以指望大量忠诚的共和党议员支持他达成的修订版NAFTA协议。但一些关键的共和党议员(特别是在参议院,这些人拥护自由贸易)可能会引发问题。他们不仅会不支持把加拿大排除在外的任何协议,还担心正在酝酿的协议最终会限制而不是开放北美的贸易。

Among Democrats, Mr Trump is hoping for support from trade sceptics such as Sherrod Brown of Ohio, to make up for any Republican defections. But if the House is captured by the Democrats in the November election, the president could face huge obstacles in getting the deal through. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House minority leader, has already fired a potshot at the possible agreement. 

在民主党人中,特朗普希望得到俄亥俄州的谢罗德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)等贸易怀疑论者的支持,以弥补共和党人的任何叛变。但如果众议院在11月选举中被民主党人拿下,总统可能在推动通过协议时遇到巨大障碍。众议院少数党领袖、民主党的南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)已经抨击了可能达成的协议。

“Fixing Nafta requires reaching a trade agreement with both Mexico and Canada that improves the wages, the working conditions and the wellbeing of America’s workers and farmers,” Ms Pelosi said after the impasse in the talks. “We still don’t know the specifics of this trade agreement, or whether it will measure up to the claims of an Administration with a terrible record of delivering.”

“修复NAFTA需要与墨西哥和加拿大两国都达成贸易协议,改善美国工人和农民的薪资、工作条件和福祉,”佩洛西在谈判陷入僵局后表示。“我们仍然不知道这份贸易协议的具体内容,或者它能否达到在交付成果方面记录糟糕的本届行政当局所声称的一切。”

 


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