友友英语网 首页 金融时报 查看内容


2018-9-3 18:55| 发布者: admin| 查看: 195| 评论: 0

摘要: Trump rant highlights threats to a new Nafta deal特朗普威胁要把加拿大踢出NAFTA公众号:英语人才会个人微信:BlucestudyUS and Canadian trade negotiators had done their best on Friday afternoon to insist th ...

Trump rant highlights threats to a new Nafta deal




US and Canadian trade negotiators had done their best on Friday afternoon to insist that a deal on Nafta remained on the table, even as they announced a five-day break in negotiations.


Then on Saturday, while Washington was gripped by the funeral for John McCain, Donald Trump, the US president who was not invited to attend the service, lashed out at his northern neighbours on Twitter. 

接着,在上周六,在华盛顿全城关注约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)的葬礼之际,没有被邀请参加葬礼的美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在Twitter上猛轰北方邻国。

“We shouldn’t have to buy our friends with bad Trade Deals and Free Military Protection!,” Mr Trump wrote. “There is no political necessity to keep Canada in the new Nafta deal. If we don’t make a fair deal for the US after decades of abuse, Canada will be out. Congress should not interfere w/ these negotiations or I will simply terminate Nafta entirely & we will be far better off.”  


The rant was a reminder of the risks to a possible deal ahead of the resumption of talks on Wednesday — beginning with the unpredictable impulses of the man in the Oval Office. 


Although Canadian officials have learnt to dismiss Mr Trump’s bluster, his lack of restraint highlighted how the path for a Nafta deal to be negotiated, agreed and then approved by the US Congress remains fraught with pitfalls, offering little hope that the uncertainty hanging over trade in North America would be lifted anytime soon. 


Although Mr Trump sealed a deal with Mexico to revamp Nafta last week, it is still unclear whether Canada will be in a position to join in. Last week’s breakdown in the talks came amid lingering differences over trade rules governing agriculture — and specifically Canada’s protection of its dairy industry — as well as divisions on the regime surrounding trade and investment disputes.


Mr Trump’s bombast, which analysts say is intended to put pressure on Canada as well as prove to his political base that he a tough negotiator, will make it harder to clear the logjam. On milk, for instance, Canadian officials face growing calls to stick to their guns from domestic industry and local politicians, especially in the French-speaking province of Quebec, which is holding an election on October. 


Philippe Couillard, the premier of Quebec and a member of the ruling Liberal party, said on Friday: “I will not accept any deal that is not accepted by producers. I will not put any pressure on them to accept a deal that does not benefit them.”

魁北克省长、执政的自由党成员菲利普•库亚尔(Philippe Couillard)上周五表示:“我不会接受生产商不接受的任何交易。我不会对他们施加任何压力,让他们接受不利于他们的交易。”

Although the US and Canada had hoped to reach a deal by this weekend, they are now facing a tougher deadline to reach an agreement — and hand a detailed final text to Congress — by the end of September. That would allow a revamped Nafta to be signed by all three heads of government by the end of November, before the change in Mexico’s administration, from outgoing president Enrique Pena Nieto to Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Mexican officials are certainly counting on it, but if the US and Canada make any big changes that affect Mexico, a trilateral deal could easily be derailed. 

虽然美国和加拿大原本希望最迟在本周末达成协议,但他们现在面临更艰难的截止期限:在9月底之前达成协议并向美国国会提交详细的最终文本。这样三国政府首脑才能在11月底之前签署修订后的NAFTA。随后墨西哥总统恩里克•佩纳•涅托(Enrique Pena Nieto)将会卸任,新总统将是安德烈斯•曼努埃尔•洛佩斯•奥夫拉多尔(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)。墨西哥官员肯定指望一切顺利,但如果美国和加拿大做出影响墨西哥的任何重大变化,三方协议很容易被破坏。

In recent days, negotiators from all three countries have grappled with the realisation that hashing out a deal may not even be the hardest part, as congressional approval in the US — most likely in 2019, after the midterm elections — could become a big roadblock. 


Mr Trump can always count on a substantial number of loyal Republican lawmakers to back him on a revised Nafta deal. But some pivotal Republican lawmakers, particularly in the Senate, who are sympathetic to free trade, could cause problems. Not only would they fail to support any deal that excludes Canada, but they are also concerned that the agreement in the works would ultimately restrict trade in North America rather than open it up.


Among Democrats, Mr Trump is hoping for support from trade sceptics such as Sherrod Brown of Ohio, to make up for any Republican defections. But if the House is captured by the Democrats in the November election, the president could face huge obstacles in getting the deal through. Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic House minority leader, has already fired a potshot at the possible agreement. 

在民主党人中,特朗普希望得到俄亥俄州的谢罗德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)等贸易怀疑论者的支持,以弥补共和党人的任何叛变。但如果众议院在11月选举中被民主党人拿下,总统可能在推动通过协议时遇到巨大障碍。众议院少数党领袖、民主党的南希•佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)已经抨击了可能达成的协议。

“Fixing Nafta requires reaching a trade agreement with both Mexico and Canada that improves the wages, the working conditions and the wellbeing of America’s workers and farmers,” Ms Pelosi said after the impasse in the talks. “We still don’t know the specifics of this trade agreement, or whether it will measure up to the claims of an Administration with a terrible record of delivering.”