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金融时报双语:香港金管局再度入市干预

2018-5-17 19:23| 发布者: admin| 查看: 90| 评论: 0

摘要: Hong Kong and Indonesia reflect growing pressure on EM currencies香港金管局再度入市干预A strengthening US dollar intensified the pressure on currencies in Asia with Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority for ...

Hong Kong and Indonesia reflect growing pressure on EM currencies

香港金管局再度入市干预

A strengthening US dollar intensified the pressure on currencies in Asia with Hong Kong’s Monetary Authority forced to once more defend its longstanding currency peg, while Indonesia’s rupiah touched its lowest level in nearly three years.

美元走强加剧了亚洲货币面临的压力,香港金管局(HKMA)被迫再度采取行动捍卫其执行了多年的联系汇率制度,同时印尼盾触及近三年最低水平。

Emerging market currencies across the board have been sliding for the past month as the dollar has been bolstered by signs of stronger US growth and higher interest rates. While Argentina and Turkey have led the EM sell-off, signs of pressure have been apparent in Asia.

新兴市场货币在过去一个月普遍下跌,因为有迹象显示美国经济增长势头增强,且利率攀升,美元因而受到提振。尽管在新兴市场的这轮抛售中,阿根廷和土耳其领跌,但亚洲的压力信号也十分明显。

The HKMA’s intervention on Wednesday, using its reserves to sell US$200m and buy HK$1.57bn, marked the 14th time that it has stepped in to prop up the persistently weak local currency in the past month.

香港金管局周三入市干预,利用外汇储备卖出2亿美元,买入15.7亿港元,这是其在过去一个月第14次入市,支撑持续疲弱的港元。

Late into Asia hours, the authority announced that it had intervened for a second time today and even more heavily — selling US$610m and buying HK$4.79bn.

周三晚间,金管局宣布当日第二次入市干预,并加大干预力度——卖出6.1亿美元,买入47.9亿港元。

Indonesia’s rupiah dropped on Wednesday to its weakest level since late 2015 against the US dollar, weakening as much as 0.5 per cent to 14,109 per dollar, a day ahead of the Bank of Indonesia’s interest rate decision.

印尼央行宣布利率决定前夕,印尼盾兑美元汇率周三跌至2015年末以来最低水平,跌幅一度达到0.5%,至1美元兑14109印尼盾。

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, a strategist at NatWest Markets, said: “The more highly-traded Asian currencies, like Korea and China, have also come under pressure. In Korea, it comes after the news that it could cancel its scheduled talks with the US.

NatWest Markets的策略师曼苏尔•毛希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)表示:“韩国和中国等评级较高的亚洲国家的货币也承压。韩元走软之前有消息称,朝鲜可能取消原定与美国举行的峰会。”

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar, trading within a band of HK$7.75-HK$7.85 against the greenback. The HKMA is required to support the peg if the Hong Kong dollar slips to the edges of the band and if other banks request the authority to take action.

港元实行盯住美元的汇率制度,交易区间设定为1美元兑7.75-7.85港元。如果港元跌至这一区间的边缘,且如果其他银行提出要求,香港金管局必须采取行动支持这一联系汇率制度。

However, the move to drain the excess liquidity in Hong Kong’s banking system is expected to lift the local short-term interest rate, called Hibor, which analysts said would weigh on borrowers and the property market. The expected increase in US interest rates in June would add further pressure, as Hong Kong tracks US rate changes as a result of its currency peg.

不过,此举会吸走香港银行系统中的过剩流动性,预计会推高本地短期利率,即香港银行间同业折借利率(HIBOR)。分析师认为HIBOR上升将会给借款人和房地产市场构成压力。预期美国将于6月升息,这将进一步加大这种压力;因为受联系汇率制度影响,香港紧跟美国的利率变化。

HKMA’s actions have already had some impact, with three-month Hibor rising from 1.2 per cent in early April to 1.75 per cent, its highest level since the end of 2008.

香港金管局的行动已经产生了一定的影响,三个月期HIBOR已从4月初的1.2%上升至1.75%,为2008年底以来的最高水平。

Chang Liu, China economist at Capital Economics, said he expects three-month Hibor to rise to nearly 3 per cent by the end of next year. “This would put Hong Kong’s overheated property market under strain: around 90 per cent of new mortgages in Hong Kong are priced off interbank interest rates.”

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的中国经济学家刘昌(Chang Liu)说,他预计到明年底,三个月期HIBOR将上升至近3%。“这将使香港过热的房地产市场承压:香港新发放的住房按揭贷款约90%是以银行间利率为基础定价的。”

The HKMA has issued warnings to borrowers. Earlier this month, the de facto central bank urged the public to “prepare for possible volatility in local interest rates”.

金管局已向借款人发出警告。本月早些时候,这家香港事实上的央行敦促公众“为本地利率的潜在波动做好准备”。

However, some analysts said Hong Kong still has ample excess liquidity, with HKMA’s aggregate balance — the amount of bank reserves it holds — falling to HK$127bn from about $180bn a month ago.

不过,一些分析师表示,香港仍有充裕的过剩流动性,香港金管局的银行体系总结余——金管局持有的银行准备金——已从一个月前的约1800亿港元降至1270亿港元。


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