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纽约时报双语:美国退出伊核协议危及美朝谈判?

2018-5-10 21:20| 发布者: admin| 查看: 53| 评论: 0

摘要: 美国退出伊核协议危及美朝谈判?Will Exiting the Iran Accord Undermine a Deal With North Korea?MOTOKO RICH2018年5月10日TOKYO — In announcing his decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord, President Trum ...

美国退出伊核协议危及美朝谈判?

Will Exiting the Iran Accord Undermine a Deal With North Korea?

MOTOKO RICH

2018年5月10日

TOKYO — In announcing his decision to exit the Iran nuclear accord, President Trump said he also wanted to send a signal about the kind of hard bargain he plans to drive with another longtime American adversary, North Korea.

 

东京——借由宣布退出伊朗核协议的决定,特朗普总统说,他希望发出一个与美国的另一个宿敌——朝鲜计划中举行的那种强硬谈判有关的信号。

 

The move, however, was greeted with skepticism by many analysts in Asia, who said it would instead jeopardize the goals of a planned summit meeting between Mr. Trump and North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un.

 

然而,在亚洲此举遭到很多分析人士的质疑。他们说,这么做会危及计划中的特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)会晤的目标。

 

By withdrawing from the Iran deal, analysts said, Mr. Trump has proved the United States to be an untrustworthy negotiating partner that cannot be counted on to honor any agreement. “Only a fool would trust the US to keep its word in a rogue state nuke deal now,” Robert E. Kelly, a professor of political science at Pusan National University in South Korea, wrote on Twitter.

 

分析人士表示,特朗普退出伊朗协议的举动证明美国不是一个值得信任的谈判对象,不能指望它履行协议。“现在只有傻瓜才相信美国会遵守自己在与一个流氓国家达成的核协议中的诺言,”韩国釜山国立大学(Pusan National University)政治学教授罗伯特·E·克利(Robert E. Kelly)在Twitter上写道。

 

If Mr. Trump wants to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear arsenal, his decision could produce the exact opposite outcome.

 

如果特朗普想说服朝鲜放弃核武库,他的决定可能会产生截然相反的结果。

 

“Yep, if you like a nuclear-armed North Korea, you are going to LOVE walking away from the Iran deal,” Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, wrote on Twitter.

 

“对,如果你喜欢一个拥有核武器的朝鲜,你就会喜欢退出伊朗协议,”明德大学国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies)东亚项目主任杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)在Twitter上写道。

 

For its part, the Trump administration indicated that the decision was intended to show North Korea that only a complete rollback of its nuclear program would be acceptable.

 

特朗普政府表示这个决定意在向朝鲜表明,美国只接受彻底废除核计划。

 

“The message to North Korea,” John R. Bolton, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, told reporters, “is the president wants a real deal.”

 

“传递给朝鲜的讯息是,”特朗普的国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿(John R. Bolton)对记者说,“总统希望达成真正的协议。”

 

特朗普周二宣布退出伊朗协议。左起:财政部长史蒂文·努钦、约翰·R·博尔顿和副总统迈克·彭斯。

特朗普周二宣布退出伊朗协议。左起:财政部长史蒂文·努钦、约翰·R·博尔顿和副总统迈克·彭斯。 DOUG MILLS/THE NEW YORK TIMES

If Mr. Trump presents Mr. Kim with a stark demand to dismantle the North’s nuclear arsenal within the year, “it challenges Kim Jong-un to decide whether he can accept the kind of deal the Trump administration insists on,” said Moon Seong-mook, a senior analyst at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy in Seoul, South Korea. “It will test how desperate and how sincere Kim Jong-un is for a deal.”

 

如果特朗普向金正恩提出在一年内拆除朝鲜核武库的严苛要求,“就是在激将金正恩决定是否接受特朗普政府坚持主张的那种协议,”设在韩国首尔的韩国国家战略研究所(Korea Research Institute for National Strategy)高级分析师文圣默(Moon Seong-mook)说。“这将考验金正恩对达成协议的渴望和诚意。”

 

In recent weeks, Mr. Kim has not been behaving like a desperate leader. Whereas he spent the first six years of his reign as a recluse, never venturing outside the country, he has been to China twice in 40 days to meet with President Xi Jinping, and last month traveled to the South Korean side of the border village of Panmunjom to meet with President Moon Jae-in.

 

最近几周,金正恩并没有表现得像一个走投无路的领导人。尽管上任前六年像隐士一样,从来没有离开过朝鲜,但他40天内两度前往中国同中国国家主席习近平会面。上月,他还去了边境村板门店的韩国一侧,与韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)会面。

 

During that historic summit meeting, Mr. Kim and Mr. Moon delivered a statement committing to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, though they gave few details about what that meant.

 

在那次历史性的首脑会晤期间,金正恩和文在寅发表声明,承诺实现朝鲜半岛的无核化。但关于无核化的含义,他们几乎没有给出细节。

 

Indeed, while the term has been bandied about regularly in a frenzy of diplomacy in recent weeks, denuclearization is a fungible concept.

 

实际上,虽然无核化这个词在最近几周的外交热潮中常被提及,但它是一个可以替换的概念。

 

During a meeting in Tokyo of the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea on Wednesday, all three mentioned “denuclearization” during remarks to reporters. Yet it is clear they have different ideas about how it would be achieved.

 

在中国、日本和韩国领导人周三在东京举行会谈期间,三方都在面向记者发表讲话时提到了“无核化”。但显然,他们对如何实现无核化的看法各异。

 

On Tuesday, for example, when Mr. Kim flew to Dalian, China, to meet with Mr. Xi, the two leaders outlined a far more drawn-out process for denuclearization than is favored by either the United States or its ally Japan.

 

比如周二,当金正恩飞赴中国大连同习近平会面时,两位领导人勾勒的无核化进程,远比美国或其盟友日本所希望的要漫长。

 

Denuclearization is “a very broad Rorschach test” that can “mean anything and everything to everybody,” said Kent Calder, director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

 

无核化是“一个非常宽泛的罗夏测验”,华盛顿约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院东亚研究中心(Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)的主任肯特·考尔德(Kent Calder)说,可能“对每个人的含义都不同”。

 

In a meeting between Mr. Moon and Mr. Abe on Wednesday, the South Korean leader emphasized the challenges of agreeing on definitions and developing a road map for achieving North Korea’s disarmament. “While North Korea has agreed on the basic principle of denuclearization,” Mr. Moon said, “it is a difficult question how to specifically realize that.”

 

周三与安倍晋三举行会谈时,韩国领导人文在寅强调了就定义达成一致并为实现朝鲜裁军制定路线图的挑战。“尽管朝鲜同意了无核化的基本原则,”文在寅说,“如何具体实现是个难题。”

 

Mr. Trump is known for his impatience. And some analysts said Mr. Kim might shrewdly seize on the decision to withdraw from the Iran deal as a reason to offer shallow, short-term concessions, on the basis that the United States cannot be trusted to enter a long-term deal.

 

特朗普以没有耐心著称。一些分析人士称,金正恩可能会精明地利用美国退出伊朗协议的决定,以无法相信美国会达成一项长期协议为由,提出微不足道的短期让步。

 

朝鲜领导人金正恩本周抵达中国大连。

朝鲜领导人金正恩本周抵达中国大连。 KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY, VIA AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

“Kim Jong-un is choreographing this diplomatic dance, and seems to have studied Trump carefully,” said Laura Rosenberger, a senior fellow and director of the Washington-based Alliance for Securing Democracy. “The erosion of U.S. credibility by pulling out of the Iran deal recuses the incentives for Kim to agree to a long-term deal and increases incentives for him to dupe Trump into something that sacrifices U.S. interests but allows Trump to declare victory and go home.”

 

“金正恩正在编排这场外交之舞,他似乎已经仔细研究过特朗普,”华盛顿的保卫民主联盟(Alliance for Securing Democracy)高级研究员兼总监劳拉·罗森伯格(Laura Rosenberger)说。“退出伊朗协议会损害美国的信誉,从而令金正恩更没有同意长期协议的意愿,并令他更有意愿欺骗特朗普,做出有损美国利益但却可以宣布自己凯旋而归的事情。”

 

In Japan, analysts said Mr. Kim had already accounted for Mr. Trump’s desire for quick wins, even before the withdrawal from the Iran deal. “North Koreans will continue to maintain their tactics,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat now teaching at Ritsumeikan University in Kyoto. “The real question is whether or not the Americans will buy it.”

 

在日本,分析人士表示,早在美国退出伊朗协议之前,金正恩就已经考虑到特朗普渴望速战速决的心理。“朝鲜人将继续保持其战术,”日本前外交官、现于京都立命馆大学执教的宫家邦彦(Kunihiko Miyake)说。“真正的问题是美国人会不会吃这一套。”

 

In calling for more stringent demands that North Korea dismantle its weapons program, Mr. Bolton appeared to raise the stakes for Mr. Trump’s meeting with Mr. Kim. Analysts in China suggested Mr. Kim had no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons. “At the end of the day, Kim Jong-un is not planning to trust the U.S. security guarantees,” said Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy.

 

博尔顿呼吁向朝鲜提出更严厉的要求,解除其武器计划,这似乎让特朗普与金正恩的会面显得愈发重要。中国分析人士认为金正恩无意放弃核武器。“到头来,金正恩并不打算信任美国的安全保证,”卡内基-清华全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy)研究员赵通说。

 

Mr. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal, Mr. Tong said, proved to North Korea that American guarantees “can be reversed anytime.”

 

赵通说,特朗普退出伊朗协议,向朝鲜证明了美国的保证“可以随时反悔”。

 

“Retaining his core nuclear capabilities serve as a hedge against future uncertainties,” Mr. Tong said.

 

“保留其最重要的核能力是对未来不确定因素的防范,”赵通说。

 

By engaging in a whirlwind of diplomacy, Mr. Kim has deftly sought to play countries off one another. His trip to Dalian, China, this week was part of his effort to enlist Beijing’s support in confronting the American pressure while taking advantage of “the struggle for regional hegemony between China and the United States,” said Yun Duk-min, a former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, who now teaches at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

 

通过一系列马不停蹄的外交活动,金正恩试图巧妙利用各国。本周他访问中国大连,旨在争取北京支持他应对来自美国的压力,同时又从“中美之间的地区霸权斗争”当中渔利,前首尔国家外交学院(Korea National Diplomatic Academy)院长、现在韩国外国语大学(Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)任教的尹德敏(Yun Duk-min)说。

 

All of North Korea’s neighbors are hustling to stake their own claims to guiding the peace process on the peninsula.

 

朝鲜的所有邻国都忙着声明自己的主张,力图影响半岛的和平进程。

 

“Under the rubric of ‘we need to solve this proliferation problem,’ they are each angling to enhance their own prestige vis-à-vis the other,” said June Teufel Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami. “They are all trying to solve it in a way that allows them to take the credit while not adversely affecting their own interests.”

 

“在‘我们需要解决核扩散问题’的名义下,所有人都希望提高自己的威望,而不是他人的威望,”迈阿密大学政治学教授朱恩·托伊费尔·德雷尔(June Teufel Dreyer)说。“他们都试图以一种既不影响自身利益,又能把成果归功于自己的方式解决问题。”

 

Amid all this wrangling, North Korea may have the least to lose.

 

在所有这些角力之中,朝鲜的顾忌最少。

 

Even if the meeting between Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump does not produce an agreement, said Duyeon Kim, visiting senior fellow at the Korean Peninsula Future Forum in Seoul, “the North doesn’t lose much because it can continue business as usual by refining and mass producing nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles as planned.”

 

即使金正恩和特朗普之间的会谈没有达成协议,首尔的韩国半岛未来论坛(Korean Peninsula Future Forum)高级研究员金杜妍(Duyeon Kim,音)表示:“朝鲜不会受到太大损失,因为它依然能够像往常一样继续自己的活动,按照计划完善和大规模生产核弹头与弹道导弹。”


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