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2018-5-7 17:55| 发布者: admin| 查看: 424| 评论: 0

摘要: Emerging market investors braced for turbulence新兴市场投资者准备迎接动荡Emerging markets investors are braced for turbulence in the coming days following last week’s sharp currencies sell-off that l ...

Emerging market investors braced for turbulence



Emerging markets investors are braced for turbulence in the coming days following last week’s sharp currencies sell-off that led to drastic measures by Argentina’s central bank to stop a slide in the peso.


Markets have been roiled by a stronger US dollar, which has prompted a wave of selling in emerging market currencies, stocks and bonds.


Argentina, which is struggling with high inflation and large deficits, responded to the hit on the peso last week by raising interest rates three times — from 27.25 per cent to 40 per cent.


The “paradigm shift” of a stronger dollar could trigger a bigger and longer-lasting emerging markets sell-off, warned Sonja Gibbs, senior director of the Institute of International Finance, an industry association.

金融业行业协会——国际金融协会(IIF)的高级主管索尼娅•吉布斯(Sonja Gibbs)警告称,美元走强的“范式转变”可能引发更大、更持久的新兴市场抛售。

“If you look at the futures market for the dollar and US Treasuries, short positions are at very high levels, akin to the taper tantrum,” she said, referring to the developing markets shake-up in 2013 when the US announced an end to ultra-loose monetary policies.

“如果你看看美元和美国国债的期货市场,空头头寸处于非常高的水平,类似于当初‘缩减恐慌’(taper tantrum)的情况,”她表示;她指的是2013年美国宣布将要结束超宽松的货币政策后,发展中市场经历的动荡。

“If the dollar continues to strengthen we will get to a point where those are very painful and the risk is they will have to unwind,” Ms Gibbs added.


During the “taper tantrum” of 2013, emerging market securities suffered as investors feared a stronger dollar would make dollar debt harder to repay. Since then many emerging markets have improved their government finances, but corporate debt levels — both in local currency and dollars — have continued to rise.


Argentina’s woes have been shared by other countries in the region, with companies from Argentina, Colombia and Paraguay scrapping plans to issue $2bn in bonds last week because of rising US interest rates, according to Bloomberg.


The hit to emerging markets currencies has affected countries from Turkey to Poland. While the lira has been driven lower by concerns over Ankara’s economic imbalances, the zloty has been caught up in the wider sell-off despite a more stable economic situation in Warsaw.


However, some analysts said the extent of the damage may be limited because of better macroeconomic conditions in developing countries in recent years.


Paul McNamara, a fund manager at Gam, said there was potential for a milder echo of the taper tantrum — but only on the currency side.

环球资产管理公司(GAM)的基金经理保罗•麦克纳马拉(Paul McNamara)表示,出现较温和的类似“缩减恐慌”的情形是有可能的,但仅限于货币方面。

“I think the fundamentals are different now, and the currencies that have been hit the worst are the ones with big current account deficits,” he said. “I’m willing to defend the idea that this time really is different.”


Sergio Trigo Paz, head of EM fixed income at BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset manager, said some emerging countries wishing to issue debt this year would have to pay higher interest rates than planned, but this would offer investors the chance to switch into higher-yielding assets.

全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)的新兴市场固定收益主管塞尔吉奥•特里戈•帕斯(Sergio Trigo Paz)表示,希望在今年发行债券的一些新兴市场国家,将不得不支付比原计划更高的利率,但这将为投资者提供一个机会,让他们转向更高收益的资产。

Yet the outlook for emerging markets may be determined by conditions beyond their control. Simon Quijano-Evans, EM strategist at Legal & General Asset Management in London, said a combination of more assertive US foreign policy, leading to higher oil prices, and continued dollar appreciation would be “a double whammy” for emerging market currencies.

然而,新兴市场的前景可能由它们无法控制的情况决定。伦敦法通投资管理公司(Legal & General Investment Management,简称LGIM)的新兴市场策略师西蒙•奎贾诺-埃文斯(Simon Quijano-Evans)表示,更强势的美国外交政策导致油价上涨,加上美元持续升值,对新兴市场货币而言将是“双重打击”。

“All eyes are on one thing, which is US policy, and the impact of that on the performance of the dollar,” he said.


Additional reporting by Robin Wigglesworth in New York

罗宾•威格尔斯沃思(Robin Wigglesworth)纽约补充报道